Many group chats have become quiet lately, barely reaching 100+ messages daily. While I’m not pessimistic short-term and see opportunity in the March-May window, my strategy is: buy heavily on large dips, avoid small/gradual dips, DCA during post-dip sideways consolidation with low volume, add positions on upward breakouts, and stop-loss on downward breaks. Focus on Ethereum infrastructure and oversold AI agents. DCA Bitcoin below $8.8k, build positions after March dips, take profit May. This warning is for market conditions after May and applies to regular investors only, except big whales, scientists, on-chain analysts, or crypto elite.
[Core View]: The industry is no longer suitable for 80%+ retail investors. Recommend cashing out most positions or converting to USDT savings after March-May.
[Reason 1]: 2025 crypto = Unregulated dark forest combining Ponzi schemes + scams + pyramid schemes + illegal fundraising
The blockchain is like a gold-filled sewage pool. Crypto natives sift through with basic tools for remaining gold fragments, accumulating bit by bit. A few find diamonds and make fortunes, motivating others to persist. Web2 institutions arrive with trucks and excavators to extract gold by the truckload, rushing before it’s gone. They even spread rumors to lure natives to remote locations to kill them and steal their gold. Tool/water sellers make steady profits without concern, while only the gold-panning natives continue losing money.
The Milady scam only accelerated rather than changed the progression. The next wealth effect will definitely come from new narratives or token distribution methods. Existing passive holders will face increasing competition, seeing potential returns drop from $100M to tens of millions to $10M to a few million to hundreds of thousands, until they can’t continue and go dormant until sentiment recovers for another more competitive round.
CEXs are dead quiet, with 600-700M in vested tokens awaiting unlock weekly. Whoever becomes the bagholder or long-term holder will get dumped on. Even trading bounces requires being faster than others. Trust me, think smaller for 2025.
Innovation? This round’s only innovation is the pump casino, highlighting Web3’s final use case - satisfying humanity’s gambling nature. Everything else is recycled from the last round.
Trump supports crypto?! Hasn’t Trump taken enough? When he enters the space, he’ll prioritize his own profits. Making money alongside him depends on individual capability. If you can’t profit in an unregulated environment without legal protection, you must accept the gambling losses. Is it good that Web2 players are making hundreds of millions or billions from Web3? Don’t be naive friends, like the Three Arrows and FTX collapses, it will ultimately be distributed across everyone who doesn’t take profits.
Legal action? Sorry, Web3 has zero enforcement power. Even if Web2 elites defecate on your head, you can only smile and then curse in private later. Been in the industry for years, ever heard of anyone hiring hitmen on the black market to kill project teams after losing money? All talk, only making the harvesting more aggressive. This is Web3’s fate - digital gypsies.
[Reason 2]: Bitcoin’s 4-year halving cycle bear market approaches
2011-14, 2014-17, 2017-21, 2021-25
I don’t know how much ETFs will change market patterns, but by existing patterns, this year marks the transition from bull to bear, only differing in whether the final peak comes early or late year.
With widely known patterns, there’s front-running. A expects Bitcoin top at $180k, B is satisfied with $160k, C has enough volume that $150k means lifelong comfort, D is an institution considering taking profit starting $143k, E is a larger institution satisfied with investor returns if they can sell at $137k. Remember, someone always front-runs. Larger funds need to sell before liquidity deteriorates or they can’t exit. Same for Bitcoin - if you’re an altcoin whale, would you wait until Bitcoin drops to exit? Obviously you’d exit earlier, selling aggressively while Bitcoin rises and people still chase pumps, securing enough funds for the bear market. So our anticipated altcoin season is when every market maker stands at the dance floor exit ready to run. Are you confident you can snatch profits from their mouths?
Respect patterns, don’t deceive yourself thinking “this time is different.” The risk-reward ratio is low - selling Bitcoin at $120-150k misses at most 30-50% upside, not selling risks 2-3 years of holding through 60-70% drawdown from peak, with altcoins seeing 90%+ drawdowns.
[Reason 3]: Elon Musk’s DOGE layoffs bring US turmoil risking economic/financial market instability. Elon took office and immediately rocked the big data analysts by dismantling Democratic strongholds, targeting the International Development Agency, Pentagon, Treasury, and even threatening to investigate the Federal Reserve.
Oh! The last two presidents who wanted to investigate the Fed were JFK (assassinated in 1963) and Reagan (who narrowly survived an assassination attempt in 1981).
Elon’s bold moves could very likely result in an assassination attempt within the next 1-2 years. Given his influence in crypto, if Elon or even Trump were to be assassinated, the market would crash significantly - at minimum DOGE would plummet, dragging others down with it. This is a “gray rhino” event.
[Reason 4]: Macro inflation rebound prevents significant rate cuts short-term
Trump’s policies of global tariffs and tax cuts will push inflation higher, potentially creating stagflation. Currently, interest rate futures expect only one Fed rate cut in December 2025, with possibly none in 2026. The Fed continues quantitative tightening. Remember that the 2022 crash began 3-4 months before the first March 2022 rate hike as markets front-ran the peak. If inflation persists in 2025-26 and there’s an unexpected rate hike in 2026 that markets haven’t priced in, it could trigger a US stock market decline that would drag crypto into a bear market - aligning perfectly with Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle.
Trump repeatedly emphasized high inflation during Biden’s term versus stable inflation with rising wages during his own. The masses are a mob who won’t analyze the underlying economic reasons. Democrats wanting to reclaim the White House will inevitably try to sabotage Trump’s term. With Musk stealing their home turf and Trump taking both chambers, they’ll think “let’s burn it all down” - hoping for economic collapse, stock market decline, and diplomatic failures. Combined with potential stagflation risks, the probability of economic crisis increases, putting enormous pressure on US stocks.
Whichever scenario plays out, all have extremely negative implications for crypto. Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market similarly coincided with NASDAQ’s year-long decline. So don’t be overly optimistic - wait and see. If you have money, US stocks are far higher quality assets than crypto. You can research AI application companies similar to Amazon and Google after the dot-com bubble. Be patient.
[Reason 5]: Too many people didn’t profit this cycle, and the industry has lost its crypto-native spirit
When I entered the crypto space, most community members cherished decentralization ideals. Cryptocurrency realized the “Sovereign Individual” vision of personal property rights, a great milestone in human development. Last cycle’s DeFi and NFTs were phenomenal products solving real needs and creating real value.
What value are Web3 projects creating this cycle? Various meme coins, coordinated pumps, celebrity tokens, scam coins, high FDV/low float tokens - all focused on locking up retail liquidity while founders dump at high prices. Everyone’s obsessed with Binance listings, pursuing whatever narrative Binance favors. Web2 players who lost opportunities now come to Web3 for quick money from the “rich fools,” cashing out for mansions, luxury cars and yachts without building anything. They came for money - only those who didn’t profit would build. Anyone who made money and didn’t take it out would be stupid. Conversely, non-token projects like trading pumps and various trading bots actually delivered real value this cycle, but like Web2, why issue tokens when you’re profitable? Only issue tokens when profits slow to capture one last big cash-out. Retail dreams of sharing in these profits are just that - dreams.
Remaining valueless projects are just liquidity bubbles, aka PvP. When liquidity ebbs, value returns to zero. Without profit motivation, who would use these broken chains with expensive gas fees?
Crypto growth was driven by idealism and profit effects. Those once-passionate dragon slayers are now dating, living seriously in 9-figure mansions, researching immortality and having kids in Dubai, or seriously reflecting on being too soft-hearted in Brooklyn Metropolitan Detention Center. Everyone’s tired - no one can maintain passion forever. Newcomers focus solely on money, talking ideals but thinking business.
The decentralization ideal is lost, and profit opportunities even more so. Friends I’ve met in person since early 2023 include many who lost money. I sincerely advise against crypto speculation, and those who lost money definitely won’t bring new people in - they’ll only warn about crypto’s many pitfalls. ETF buyers rarely speculate directly on crypto, and capital overflow from Bitcoin to altcoins to memecoins is separated by an entire Kunlun mountain range.
Many think “The bull market can’t end before I profit?” Yes, friend, markets don’t continue just so individuals can profit. On the contrary, they’ll lose even more, paying for others’ profit-taking exit party.
Sound mechanisms = no excess returns; unsound ones = dark forest with endless losses and nowhere to complain. Decentralization = nobody working; centralization = corrupt groups. CEX = organized retail harvesting communities; DEX = fragmented self-interested individuals. Market makers = preventing others from profiting. KOLs (some) = industry vampires profiting from traffic, not trading. VCs = “Better I betray the world than the world betrays me.”
In 2024, Binance alone made $50 billion in fees. All other exchanges combined likely made another $50 billion. This doesn’t include project investment returns, market-making profits, or arbitrage gains. Add new project launches and old project unlocks, and roughly $200 billion is extracted from the market annually - constant bloodletting. How can retail profit? This is truly a shrinking market.
Who speculates without profits? Who speculates after profiting? Who enters crypto when nobody profits? How can altcoins rise without new participants?
—————Dividing Line—————
These are my recent thoughts, not short-term FUD emotions. As mentioned at the beginning, I’m optimistic about the market after March. The issues above are deep-seated contradictions and stubborn problems that can’t be solved. The market needs to start over or be regulated as an alternative asset class for long-term existence. But the days when ordinary people could make quick money won’t return. If you’re research-oriented, look directly at US stocks - better value proposition. Web3 was like a dream that let too many people earn wealth impossible to touch in the parallel Web2 universe. Now the dream is over. Time to return to Web2, live well, and spend more time with family.
Watched him build the mansion, watched him host the banquet, watched his building collapse - that’s Web3.